As a passionate sports fan, I devoted the first part of my career to the sports industry. I have always been a massive enjoyer of the four major US sports (basketball, football, baseball, hockey), and although I have only worked professionally in one of the sports, I have been able to develop an understanding of each (albeit at different levels).

One of the most fascinating aspects of following all four sports simultaneously is getting to observe the differences and similarities. I’ve been able to learn what’s unique to each sport and what can be applied horizontally within them.

Baseball, which has been the leader in applying quantitative methods to further the understanding of the sport, is the most unique one due to its lack of time constraint and full reliance on individual events. The other three are extremely similar in a few key ways.

Obviously, the sports are similar in that they’re competitions. They involve a team trying to beat another team. They also involve constructing a collection of athletes that maximizes the talent relative to a salary constraint. These are high level similarities. Although the gameplays are different, there’s a key tie that unites the in-game strategy of each sport as well: in order to increase its chance at winning, the offensive team needs to first and foremost create space, movement, and confusion in the defense.

Basketball

I’ve been fortunate enough to be able to study the game of basketball quantitatively at the highest level, both by creating measures and analysis on the league level and then using my insights to impact winning for a team. Although I can’t spill detailed secrets, a lot of the measures I’ve tested and utilized over the years involve moving the defense.

A bulk of the focus of early analysis was on spacing for the offense. This led to five out offensive structures and a massively diminished role for non-shooting threats (both in accuracy and in willingness to pull the trigger). This shift was a huge start, as defenses were forced to stretch out more and be more spaced out. However, this focus could be misaligned with the actual goal in certain matchups.

For example, take the Bucks 2022 series against the Boston Celtics. Boston had an incredibly versatile and quick defense that could cover a lot of ground. Placing 5 players spread apart at the perimeter was not enough to create actual space and movement in this defense that could easily cover the necessary ground. We did not make them move enough or create enough misdirection to open up space, and in turn our offense was stagnant. We were too focused on offensive spacing without focusing on what we were doing to the defense. We didn’t make the defense move enough and our offense had trouble finding opportunities besides pull-up or outside-outside threes against a top defense in the playoffs.

Recently, the skills that create space and movement in the defense and open up consistent opportunities have been the ones that have risen to the top. Pick setting has skyrocketed in frequency, as ballhandlers are able to gain an advantage on the defense, force help, and make the defense move more than it comfortably can. Acceleration and deceleration with the ball has shown as an incredibly strong predictor of offensive success, as guys who can blow by the defender force rotations to prevent the initial action from scoring. Ballhandlers who can shoot, dribble, and pass are nightmares to stop as they nearly always force defensive movement and spacing:

·      If they can shoot, they force the defense to come up higher and guard them at their range.

·      If they can dribble and drive, they move past their defenders and create number advantages from the help rotations.

·      If they can pass, help defense doesn’t stop them and they create open opportunities for teammates.

The presence of creators who can move the defense and shooting threats who can finish possessions successfully has made it extremely difficult to defend in the modern era.

Other actions that offenses take create the necessary movement in the defense to open easy opportunities even without the ballhandler advantage. Rotation-forcing passes are a huge bonus; specifically, drive-and-kicks make the defense scramble. These generate very threatening shots too, as threes that come from passes from the interior are the highest probability threes in the game. Cuts and off-ball movement also create movement and confusion in the defense, as they always stay locked in and moving against that. Even sending the ball to all areas of the court forces the defense to occupy more space.

Basketball is a sport where your goal is to get the highest probability shot you can each time you have possession of the ball. These targets are primarily either close to the basket or open deep shots that are worth more points. The best way to do this is to generate movement in the defense and create the chance for these ideal shots.

Hockey

Hockey, a more free-flowing and lower-scoring sport, also demands a strategy to open up movement in the defense. The additional challenge is the necessity to make the goaltender move, the largest obstacle in the way.

Early analytics provided strong evidence the best way to do this is through transition chances, longer entry passes, royal road passes, and of course Powerplays. The latter is the most obvious; having more players on the ice than the opponent increases your chances of scoring.

The following charts show how each man advantage increases the probability of scoring, using the 2022-23 New Jersey Devils as an example. They had an elite even strength offense, generating 3 expected goals per 60 minutes. Their Powerplay, relatively weaker compared to the league than their 5v5 offense, generated over 8 expected goals per 60 minutes.

Royal road passes, passes that go from one side of the ice to the other, also create scoring chances by forcing horizontal movement in the defense and goalie. Set defense and set goaltenders make it extremely difficult to score, as the clear lines are covered. Moving the puck across opens new lines for shots, and the puck moves much faster than the players can. This speed advantage tied with the quick opening makes this the most threatening type of pass.

Transition opportunities that stretch the defense are also very threatening, as it diminishes the line of defense for the goalie. Long passes out of the zone to create transition chances, controlled entries into the zone, and quick movements that require a backtracking defense to skate fast increases the potential lines for scoring while also decreasing the defense’s ability to change direction and line up with the shot. The advantage makes the defense scramble, cover ground, and fall victim to quick actions and confusion.

These types of plays increase a team’s chances of scoring, and they’re all tied into the main goal of opening up the defense and making it move.

As an extremely similar sport, soccer has similar goals to hockey. However, the size of the goal and the number of defenders make the defense more potent and the goalie less important. Thus, creating chances where there are fewer defenders near the goal vastly increases your chances.

Football

Football, while a very different beast and the sport I’ve had the least experience analyzing, has also had some breakthroughs in the power of creating defensive movement and confusion.

A pivotal discovery was in the effect of pre-snap movement on play success. Teams have realized that getting the defense moving before the play starts increases their odds of success. Additionally, the importance of the QB being able to throw and run has shown the importance of getting the defense moving and feeling uncertain. The offense puts the game on its terms and creates more openings. This is also magnified by the speed and athleticism of the weapons, where defenses need to cover more ground than ever.

The innovations in football strategy and personnel have taken advantage of the opportunities created by generating space and movement in defenses.

Conclusion

Each of these sports, while appearing very different, are tied in the baseline goal of making the defense move enough to open good scoring chances. This unity is extremely exciting for fans of all sports and the teams, as it shows that we can share knowledge and grow together. Teams in the NBA would be well pressed to learn from work in football, and basketball fans can have a baseline idea of what a hockey team should do with possession in the offensive zone. I’ve enjoyed the renaissance in sports knowledge over the past 10 years, and I look forward to seeing what analysts in each sport uncover in the future. I hope people in each sport continue to learn from discoveries in other sports, and that the combined knowledge grows stronger than each individual part would otherwise.